Understanding the ratings
In October, the midterm map showed a clear shift in favour of the Democrats in the House, a steady one in the Senate and an uneven one in the governorships. The Democratic gain is most evident in areas with a suburban electorate and in those seats which were competitive in 2024; it diminishes in the Sun Belt governorships and in a few of the deep-red Senate seats, where the Republicans have either held on or regained ground. Since most of the closely contested races still lie within two points, the trend is clear even though the results are still undecided.
The Senate: Democratic gains, with resistance
Governors: A split verdict
The Caveat: Republicans and the pollsters